On June 16, 2025, reports revealed that a research team led by Chen Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, conducted a comprehensive analysis of land use and cover changes in the Tarim River Basin over the last three decades. The study incorporated 16 key drivers, such as population growth, economic activity, and climate conditions, and employed the PLUS model to project future land use patterns and their ecological consequences. The findings indicate an improvement in the basin's ecological environment quality index. The research was recently published in the international journal Geography and Sustainability.

Photo shows Huludao scenic area along the lower reaches of the Tarim River in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. (Photo by Xinhua/Hu Huhu)

Situated in the highly arid southern Xinjiang region, the Tarim River Basin primarily relies on oasis-based agriculture. Its delicate ecosystem makes balancing resource exploitation with conservation, as well as aligning economic growth with ecological security, essential for the area's sustainable and high-quality development.

Over the past 30 years, as regional population and land demand have continued to grow, the development of the Tarim River Basin has become increasingly dependent on water, soil, and other natural resources, as well as the ecological environment. The intensity of resource exploitation, utilization, and protection has also increased. Consequently, land use and cover changes, along with their broader implications, have become a key research focus among scholars.

Research led by Chen Yaning reveals significant shifts in land use patterns across the Tarim River Basin between 1992 and 2020. Cultivated land expanded by over 18,000 square kilometers, a growth rate of 56.13 percent, while grassland and forest areas grew by 1,015.36 and 10,235.29 square kilometers, respectively. Barren land decreased by more than 20,000 square kilometers during this period.

Chen notes that the Tarim River Basin generally shows a positive ecological trend. Spatially, areas with ecological improvement are mainly distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the basin, while areas with ecological degradation are relatively small. Under four different future development scenarios, namely natural development, cultivated land protection, ecological protection, and urban expansion, the evolution of land use in the Tarim River Basin varies significantly. Among these, the ecological protection scenario offers the greatest ecological benefits.

The transformation of barren areas into grasslands and forests is a primary factor enhancing the basin's ecological quality. By 2050, models predict that grassland areas will increase by over 20,000 square kilometers, forests by over 2,600 square kilometers, and water bodies by nearly 600 square kilometers. This process will significantly enhance regional ecological service functions, such as water conservation, soil retention, and biodiversity.

While acknowledging cultivated land's vital role in regional food security, Chen warns that the accelerating grassland-to-farmland conversion increases ecological stress and may destabilize ecosystems. He advocates for more balanced land use planning with regulated development to strengthen the basin's carbon sequestration capacity.

(Source: Science and Technology Daily, Reporter: Liang Le)